Q1/2026 Domain Market Report: numbers, trends, Q2 projection
$1.42B Q1 secondary market volume, +18% YoY. Top sales, TLD performance, regional flow + 4 Q2/2026 scenario projections.
Q1/2026 closed with $1.42B in global secondary-market volume, up 18% YoY. The figure aggregates NameBio (deals above $5K) and DNJournal Q1 Year-To-Date Sales Report. This brief summarises 4 layers: top sales, TLD performance, regional flow, and 4 Q2 scenario projections.
Top sales Q1/2026
Five largest deals: Brand.ai $1.2M (Q1 top sale, buyer undisclosed), Trip.com $720K (strategic partner, existing-brand expansion), Quantum.com $580K (Series B startup), Ledger.io $440K (crypto-wallet startup), Capital.fund $315K. Four of five are strategic buyers — pattern matching 2024 and 2025.
TLD performance
.ai continues to lead but growth has slowed from 24% (Q1/2025) to 18.6% — first sign of cooldown phase. .com shows expected stability — it is the "low beta" TLD of this market. .io rose 11.2% on the back of dev-tools and crypto startup waves.
Thematic new TLDs (.crypto, .nft) continue to lose volume — major platforms have stopped supporting them. Individual investors should be cautious with thematic TLDs that lack sustainable organic liquidity.
Regional flow
Buyers: 43% North America, 28% Europe, 19% Asia (mainly China, Korea, Japan), 6% Middle East, 4% other. Sellers: more dispersed, 58% individuals vs 42% institutional.
Notably, Asian flow rose 35% YoY, driven by Southeast Asian startups (Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam) beginning to pay premium for primary domains. This is a positive signal for the Vietnamese domestic market — buyer presence is increasing.
Q1/2026 places the market in mid-to-late cycle — momentum still present, but TLD dispersion is becoming pronounced.
Four Q2/2026 scenarios
Scenario 1 (Continued Bull, 25%): Q2 volume ≥ $1.6B, .ai continues up, .com stabilises above the $5K threshold. Trigger: Fed rate-cut pivot.
Scenario 2 (Base Case, 50%): Q2 volume $1.3-1.5B (flat-to-slight-up). .ai cools -5%, .com sideways. Baseline if no major catalyst.
Scenario 3 (Healthy Correction, 20%): Volume down 10-15%, .ai correction -15-20%, but .com and Geo stay defensive. Trigger: macro bad news (recession signal, geopolitical).
Scenario 4 (Hard Correction, 5%): Volume down 25%+, full bear. Low probability but plan: rebalance to Geo/Brandable, reduce speculative sleeve.
Brief #002 details the 10-year price cycle (places Q1/2026 in long-term context). Brief #006 covers sector capital allocation — particularly important if Scenario 3 materialises.
Frequently asked
Does the $1.42B figure include all transactions?
No. This is publicly-available data (NameBio + DNJournal). Industry estimates suggest 30-40% of secondary-market volume happens under NDA and is never disclosed. True total likely $2.0-2.4B/quarter. The official $1.42B remains the most reliable proxy for tracking YoY trend.
Why is .com only +2.4% — is it dying?
No, .com is simply the largest TLD so absolute growth is large but percentage is smaller than smaller TLDs. .com Q1 volume was $850M (60% of total market) — still the liquidity king. Comparison: .ai grew from $90M to $107M (+18.6% but 8x smaller dollar volume than .com).
What signals would warn that Scenario 3 or 4 is materialising?
Three signals to watch: (1) monthly top sales declining 3 consecutive months, (2) Sedo "stale listing" rate rising (% listings > 90 days unsold) — earliest indicator, (3) dense macro-recession news cycle pushing end-users to cut marketing budgets. DOMAIN BRIEF will track these three weekly.
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